Every five years, citizens of the European Union member states go to the polls to elect their regional representatives to the European Parliament. The elections to the European Parliament are set to take place in all 27 member states in the upcoming year, between 26 and  29 May 2019. However, election turnout for the European Parliament has always been low, fluctuating around the 30-40% mark. In that capacity, the increased campaigning on the part of the European institutions themselves is a confirmation not just of deeper political integration within the Union, but also of the existential crisis that the Union finds itself in. What does the future of Europe entail? Will the future even hold a Europe as we know it? How exactly do European elections work, and what makes the upcoming ones so consequential in the timeline of Europe’s continued existence?

The European Parliament Elections 2019, explained

The European Parliament, standing for the second-largest democratic electorate in the world, is one of the three main legislative bodies of the European Union, and the only body that directly represents the European people and their interests. This time, the 27 member states will be electing 705 MEPs (Members of European Parliament) making up the new House, with the inaugural plenary session taking place in July 2019.

The number of MEPs per country is determined by the method of “degressive proportional representation”. In effect, this means that bigger member states are underrepresented compared to smaller states. Germany’s population of 82 million gives it the most MEPs (at 96), and Malta’s populations around 460,000 gives it the least (at 6). Therefore, a German vote is “worth” about ten times less than a Maltese or Luxembourg vote. This is done mainly so that the institutional design of the European Union is fundamentally more equal and more representative of both population and power differentials between the countries, and respects the heterogeneity of its members. The European parliament is constituted of national parties normally part of a wider European party family. Normally, the number of MPs is kept odd to make voting procedures within the parliament easier. Following Brexit, however, 27 of the 73 seats shall be redistributed to other countries. The remaining 46 seats therefore are earmarked to be allocated to states that join the EU in the future.

What does the European Parliament do?

The European Parliament is mainly a working parliament, in that it handles the legislative process within the EU. It plays a crucial role in the Union’s legislative procedure in that it can change, amend and veto portions of legislation in conjunction with the Council of Ministers. It fundamentally introduces a political, accountable dimension into what is widely believed to be a non-democratically accountable process. In order to accommodate the specialist knowledge of MEPs, the parliament is divided up into subject-specific committees, in which legislature is drafted and debated.

Currently, there are eight primary political groups represented in the European parliament across nationalities and the political spectrum. The most prominent party is the European People’s Party (EPP), which includes most centre-right parties across Europe, most notably Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU Union, and the Spanish People’s Party. The Progressive Alliance of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is the second largest party group in parliament, which comprise of centre-left parties such as the British Labour party, and the German SPD. The groups of ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists), and the EFD (Europe of Freedom and Democracy) are formed by various Eurosceptic parties, with the non-aligned parties completing the parliamentary right.

On the other side, the ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) and the European Greens/Free Alliance (EFA) make up the parliamentary centre, with Mark Rutte being one of their representative Heads of State from the Netherlands. Finally, the GUE-NGL (European United Left-Nordic Green Left) also represents European Socialists and Democrats.

What is the “Spitzenkandidat” system?

The Spitzenkandidat system is an example of constitutional balance for the European Union, in that the leader of the unelected European Commission is decided in a process, democratically by the European Parliamentary elections, and discussed by the Heads of Government in the Council of Europe. Thereby, every parliamentary political group that participates in the European elections selects a “lead candidate” from any of their member parties to run for the post of the European Commission President, one of the most powerful posts in the Union. However, the catch in this process is that the Council needs to ultimately endorse the candidate picked by the Parliament. This was first used in 2014 by the parliament, which agreed to elect Jean Claude Juncker as president, then lead candidate of the EPP. Given the majority of the Council believed in his credibility too, the Spitzenkandidat system worked. It is nonetheless unknown what the decision-making process would be if the Parliament and Council are at odds, which seems increasingly likely for the upcoming elections.

As a fundamental objective, the Spitzenkandidat system makes participating in the European elections more attractive for the citizens. However, there still remain significant questions on whether the Spitzenkandidat system is the most effective way of electing a Commission leader. Namely, there are rumours that the Council of the European Heads of Government may appoint an independent candidate to the post of Commission president, to push back against the narrative of democratizing the EU and giving too much power to the European Parliament.

What does the European Election mean for the future of the institution’s legitimacy?

The main problem that the European Union faces, objectively speaking, is that though it purports to represent the interests of the European people, most European citizens seem to be fundamentally disassociated from the legislative responsibilities that the Parliament, and by extension the European Union, carries out. According to a 2015 survey, an average 11.9% of citizens across the EU. France had the highest percentage at just 24.6%, and Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia brought up the rear around 2%, said they were active citizens in that they had participated in petitions or other activities related to exercising citizens’ rights. Yet, citizens distanced from the European institutions are unable to relate to the crucial effect that the institutions have in legislating a significant portion of their daily life. Therefore, citizen involvement in the European elections next year will be significant in determining how much legitimacy the institution can actually derive from the citizens it supposedly represents.

Furthermore, there is always the possibility that with the increased number of unallocated open seats, the upcoming 2019 elections will also introduce the contestation of parties with an EU platform, where citizens can now vote on an overall vision of Europe, and hold Europe as a whole, rather than their individual governments, accountable in their decisions. With rising levels of “Euro-sclerosis”, or increasing resistance to integration within Europe, such platforms may be significant in providing a better perspective on whether the idea of Europe is working for the citizens it aims to provide for. They can also provide a fundamental advantage to the citizens in knowing what decisions the overarching European institutions is reaching, whilst working to the advantage to the overall European integration project ongoing since 1957. However, the Europe-wide movement also might mean a recourse to greater Euroscepticism, a movement which is already gaining significant momentum in national elections across Europe. As such, it remains to be seen whether Europe can defend its common values and institutions after the significant attacks on its ethos; or whether the parliamentary elections’ outcomes reflect the increasing global political shift to a conservative, more fortress-mentality based right-wing politics.