The Scottish First Minister Alexander Salmond has named September 18th, 2014 to be the day that Scotland’s residents will take to the polls. On that day it will be decided whether Scotland will be an independent country or remain part of the United Kingdom. There are many things voters must consider before going to polls and both Westminster and Edinburgh have until September 18th to feed them with different facts that support their position. As the reality of the situation approaches, the debate between parliament in Westminster and Alexander Salmond SNP has started. Salmond believes this is a new opportunity and once in a lifetime situation for Scots. Westminster believes it is a huge mistake. Who could possibly be right? A new study from the Institute of Fiscal Studies claims that income tax will increase in an Independent Scotland by £1000 per person. The UK also has the tough decision to decide whether to let Scotland continue using the pound sterling. Scottish First Minister has accused the opposition and Westminster of scaremongering voters into staying in the United Kingdom. In this situation of precarious politics, the real question is, which party feels they will lose more from the break-up?

Evaluating the economics of it can be rather easy. Scotland will gain control of oil revenues, which currently the Treasury is receiving. They will also gain a large amount of public debt. To service this debt they’ll have to raise taxes or cut spending. Additionally, they might have to build their own currency, as the UK does not seem keen on allowing Scotland to maintain the Sterling and the Bank of England (It would be like keeping the common bank account after a divorce). Scotland would like to keep the Sterling, as it would not disrupt businesses currently working both in Scotland and England. In Alexandre Salmond’s white paper outlining what Scotland’s public policy will look like post independence, there is a focus on increasing the number of hours children are given childcare which will allow women to work instead of stay home taking care of children. The white paper also claims that post in a post Independent SNP Scotland, the government would not raise taxes, a direct contradiction to the IFS  and Westminster’s predictions. Many other issues arise from the white paper such as the feasibility and affordability of the pension scheme, the welfare payments and the revenue stability of the oil and gas industry. These uncertainties can most certainly deter anyone from voting for Scottish independence. As the UK economy stagnates, the welfare and tax system needs to hold up to support its citizens. However, I don’t believe these uncertainties are completely valid to dismiss the idea of an independent Scotland. Such issues can be sorted through as a new country is formed. What will really be critical to determine an Independent Scotland’s success is the willingness of it’s people to support it through the rocky times it will experience in the beginning.

One complaint of the Scottish Independence campaign is the UK’s one size fits all policy. Policy implemented by Parliament in London is seen to be unfitting and inappropriate for Scotland, especially since the revenues the British government collects from Scotland don’t come back to Scotland as public investment; they are redistributed in other parts of the economy. This disconnect with UK public policy has been felt for many years now and many Scots resonate with this. Based on the assumption that the UK economy is flat-lining, and policy is being too slow to cope with the Great British slowdown, it might be better for Scotland to get out and start a fresh. Giving the examples of the Republic of Ireland and other small North Sea, resource rich nation states, it will be easier for Scotland to manage itself if it breaks off. However, other points to consider are that it will have to apply for EU membership and while doing this it will have to take the Euro. Additionally, it will lose any international power that the UK is privileged to hold in the Security Council and NATO.

I can further analyze the effect of an increased tax rate on Scotland’s economy, or the effect of loss of power in international affairs, however I don’t believe any of these will really make a difference to whether Scotland will be independent. At every step along the way that there is a positive for Scottish Independence, there will be a counter-negative point. Every matter they consider can be interpreted as bad for them or good for them. Independence must not be measured against the tax rate or currency or oil revenue. A country cannot be united or divided by superficial policies. What independence must be determined by is the will of the people and what they want. The issue is of national identity and what it means to be British. National identity and the will of the people is what will make Scotland a nation state if it becomes independent, not a separate currency or a new taxation system. What Scots must ask themselves is, am I Scottish or am I British?