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The Middle East like every region of the world is at one time or another experiencing major change whether it be economic galvanization, bitter turmoil or social upheaval. However nothing in recent years has captured the public imagination more than the living nightmare that is ISIS. Despite its purported global reach, its numbers are routinely exaggerated, Russia Today for example reported that sources in the Iraqi government put ISIS as at least 100,000 strong. In reality, ISIS numbers no more than 30,000 fighters. Given the threat they pose it’s no wonder that people believe that they a much larger force.

However considering they number at only 30,000 several difficult questions must be asked. Why does ISIS control so much of Syria and Northern Iraq? Why were the Iraqi army of 283,000 men and more than twice as many reservists unable to defeat a significantly smaller force?

The answer lies in the local. The success of ISIS is down to many factors: their control of oil fields and the cash flow that comes with it, its twisted use of religion, the proliferation of arms in the region, along with young vulnerable men that frequently change sides. However the main reason for ISIS’s swift military gains and immediate territorial success lies in the fact that it has blended with local security concerns and with local groups, to a degree.

Iraq, for many years now, has been descending into greater sectarianism between the Shia dominated parliament and the Sunni minority in the north. By failing to address the legitimate grievances of Iraqi Sunnis, Baghdad laid the foundations for ISIS’s populism. By portraying themselves as not only ‘authentic’ Muslims but also the defenders of Sunni Islam and Sunni communities they have managed to gain much support from local Sunni tribes in Northern Iraq.

Importantly, these local Sunni tribes are not ISIS, and they never shared ISIS’s extreme ideology, methods or aims. ISIS was initially seen as a means to achieve security, protection and better governance. However as time has progressed, ISIS has become more extreme and its violence become better reported, resulting in splits within the group. Sunni Iraqi tribes are greatly disturbed by ISIS and we are beginning to see these local tribes fight against ISIS and further distance themselves. This is an optimistic note, as many have written that ISIS by their methods have sowed the seeds of their own destruction.

What some are calling the ‘Second Sunni awakening’ is indeed cause for hope but caution must also be applied. If there is a victory, it will be hollow considering the fact that multiple actors allowed Iraq to create the internal conditions that helped groups like ISIS grow. The strategy is very different to the first awakening in the mid-2000s; it relies on many uncontrollable variables. Currently, fighting still rages on in the city of Kobani as ISIS continue to send thousands of fighters to the city. Some have called Kobani the graveyard of ISIS and used it as a turning point of sorts in the fight against it. However, the Iraqi army is still greatly inept on a structural level, which is evident by its dependency on Iranian army instructors and military personnel, essentially propping it up.

Baghdad is also one of the reasons that there is less cause for hope. Since the first town fell in Iraq to ISIS, there has been little to no effort to address the legitimate concerns of the Sunni people.

Whilst ISIS might be defeated in the coming years, until these grievances are dealt with, violence will always remain a part of the daily routine of Iraq. The rules of the game have to change on a structural level. This includes the restructuring the Iraqi army as well as politics to be more representative.

Otherwise, groups like ISIS will continue to have a persuasive narrative and an operational advantage in Sunni areas. However it likely won’t be ISIS or a fringe radical Islamist terror group in future conflicts. What is more likely is that political sectarian violence causes groups to be formed along local lines against the Iraqi government, until their concerns are met. Therefore it is absolutely essential that this root cause is addressed as soon as possible. In this last instance, the international community can help by pressuring Baghdad into reforming. Reform will greatly challenge the narrative of ISIS and it is essential if the Iraqi government wants to prevent ISIS and any future splinter groups from having a social basis.

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