Last week King Abdullah of Jordan announced the imminent withdrawal from two small but specific annexes of the 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty. This is both surprising and a wakeup call to followers of Middle Eastern regional security issues. While Jordan has every right to enforce its sovereignty in the Naharim and Zofar areas, such a move shows important and powerful factors at play and need to be examined. This includes Jordanian economic and social issues, Israeli and Jordanian strategic security concerns as well as the lack of progress on any peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.

The 1994 Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty was a crucial step for both countries. King Abdullah’s father, King Hussein bin Talal, signed the treaty 25 years ago in order to solidify Jordan’s place within the US regional security umbrella, thereby guaranteeing it a seat at the table in any Israel-Palestinian Peace Process, guardianship of Islam’s third holiest site, a quiet eastern border and economic incentives through trade and development from the United States, Israel and the international community. This directly led to huge debt relief for the Jordanian state and the creation of a large public sector within the Jordanian economy, something that has become unsustainable today.

Israel has also greatly benefited from peace. Jordan, a former enemy which Israel engaged in two difficult wars and numerous skirmishes became not only a neutral neighbour but also a crucial ally. Security cooperation between both sides runs deep and has been a stabilizing force for the Jordanian monarchy while also keeping Israel’s eastern flank relatively quiet and demilitarized.

The 2008 financial crisis hit the Kingdom of Jordan particularly hard. With few natural resources, an over reliance on foreign aid long before the events of the Arab Spring, Jordan has serious structural issues within the economic sphere. The Syrian and Iraqi civil wars led to Jordan losing its two largest trading partners as both countries collapsed into chaos; in reverse Jordan faced an influx of millions of refugees, exacerbating the difficult economic situation Jordan is currently facing. King Abdullah has tried to pass much needed economic reform through legislation, benefiting from a  US$700 million loan in 2016, provided by the International Monetary Fund under strict conditions. This led directly to street protests against the reforms in 2017 and 2018; in particular targeting the cutting of certain household subsidies that are crucial for those living close to or in poverty.

King Abdullah, and the monarchy in general, enjoy broad support within Jordanian society. To criticize the monarchy is not only unacceptable, but may also invite scrutiny from the authorities which includes arbitrary arrests and long term administrative detention. Jordan is a small country; its population stands at approximately ten million with more than two million registered Palestinian refugees; most of whom hold Jordanian citizenship and historical grievances with Israel. Its population is also young and unemployment is high, contributing to the ongoing economic crisis in the country. This makes the peace treaty with Israel – despite the clear positive contributions to Jordan’s security and economy – an easy target.

It is important to note two other incidents which have also significantly contributed to a deteriorating relationship between the two shaky allies. Serious tension over Israeli moves in Jerusalem, particularly the status of Temple Mount/ Haram al-Sharif, over the last few years, including a high-profile crisis in 2017, has only heightened tension and disagreement between the two sides. The second incident, in which an Israeli guard shot and killed two Jordanian nationals at the Israeli Embassy compound in Amman after being attacked, is another important event which created outrage on the Jordanian streets and a serious diplomatic crisis between the two countries.

The relationship is not all grim between Israel and Jordan. In 1996 the idea of Qualified Industrial Zones was introduced thereby allowing Jordanian made goods, that include a certain percentage of Israeli components in the finished product, to be sold in the United States through the US-Israel Free Trade Agreement. This has led to the creation of tens of thousands of jobs in Jordan. Jordan currently imports large amounts of water from Israel and beginning in 2019, will begin importing gas from Israel’s offshore fields.

The security relationship between both sides is strategic in nature and runs deep. There are plethora of crucial security issues both sides have an active interest in maintaining. This is particularly true when considering Jordan’s difficult geo-strategic positioning formerly leaving it exposed to a stronger Syria and Iraq. Now, Jordan contends with other issues, including Iranian and Syrian supported militia groups on its Syrian border and an ever-unstable Iraqi border. Jordan also has a domestic Islamic extremism issue, this occasionally leads to clashes between Jordanian security forces and militants.

Israel has also benefited as it has allowed the Israeli military establishment to free up resources for other pressing security issues Israel faces in a complex threat nexus of conventional and unconventional threats. The Gaza Strip is a growing security and humanitarian nightmare and there is an obvious and unfortunate lack of political will from both sides to find a proper and long-term solution. Rounds of high intensity conflict such as those that took place in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014 are always one incident away. Israel must also contend with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Lebanese-based group Hezbollah, which is sanctioned as a terrorist group by the United States, Israel, the Arab League, European Union amongst others, on its northern borders, creating a very difficult and complex security environment given the internationalization of the Syrian Civil War. Israel is also currently engaged in the military occupation of the West Bank, a disputed, volatile and complex state of affairs with the Palestinian population of the region living in largely difficult conditions under military rule. Keeping the shared Jordanian-Israeli border quiet and secure is in the interest of both states given the challenges both face.

The lack of progress of the now dormant Peace Process and the anti-normalization movement that is widely supported by in Arab countries which have official (and in some cases unofficial) relations with Israel creates an environment which leaves little room for manoeuvre for Arab leaders. King Abdullah is in a difficult position. By withdrawing from this aspect of the Jordan-Israel Peace Treaty he can distract his people from ongoing serious economic issues, giving them just enough to be satisfied while still maintaining the important strategic relationship with Israel. This will buy time for both sides to find a compromise that saves face, with the likely price being the livelihood of a few dozen Israeli farmers who rely on the land- a small price in the grander scheme of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Both states must address these challenges head on. Jordan must reform its economy; King Abdullah can only rely on the support of his people for so long and he will slowly but surely run out of distractions. Jordan’s stability is important for Israel and the wider region. Normalization must also become a discussion at some point within Jordanian society and the larger Arab World – Israel is in the Middle East to stay. Israel would also do well to read between the lines; the ongoing situation in the West Bank is unsustainable as is the Gaza Strip Crisis. Without real progress on these two core issues, Israel – which enjoying the best security situation in its 70-year history – will only see the obstacles it faces increase.