Dear readers, the first month of the year ends today and so we thought it would be the ‘ideal’ date to give some insight into what we should be looking out for in the African continent, in Europe and in the United States in the next eleven months of the year 2013.
New Year’s Eve generally gives us a good reason to go all out for a night and hope for a better or as good a year as the one we just had. In the academic world of international politics, it’s not only about champagne and an excited countdown, it is also a time when we all gather around a glass ball and predict the events that will shape the world of politics in an effort to clear the uncertainties of a new year. Well, we should first of all face the obvious: We are not Nostradamus and we do not have the great foresight of the academic world. So this article will give no predictions what so ever and will not try to give you a rough image of our world by the end of 2013. However if you are looking for a rough guide of what new stories might appear on your screens in the coming year and what events you should keep a close eye on, this article might be useful.Africa
Ballots…
2013 should be a very interesting year for the East African powerhouse that is Kenya. The region’s largest economy and self titled African Silicon Valley has elections coming up that might shake the balance of the region with the country balancing between progress and repetition. The country has had a difficult relationship with the notion of voting; their first fair and democratic election being in 2002 and ethnic conflict having marred their last general election in 2007. The last election however lead to the creation of a large national unity government (brokered by none other than Kofi Annan), re-grouping all major ethnic groups around the leadership of President Mwai Kibaki (a London School of Economics alumni) and Prime Minister Raila Odinga with a whole cohort of Vice Presidents and Vice Prime Ministers to round up the top.
The tenure of the coalition government has been shaky to say the least with both men openly showing their disdain for each other and the International Court of Justice indicting Vice Prime Minister and minister of finance Uhuru Kenyatta (grandson of founding President Jomo Kenyatta) and former minister William Ruto of crimes against humanity committed during the post-electoral violence in late 2007 and early 2008. Yet, the elections trail is back in 2013 under the auspices of a new constitution offering a wide range of new, lucrative government positions (governorships and new seats in the best paid parliament in the world).
The elections, planned for the 4th of March, could result in a fundamental step towards progress or easily lead to chaos. Unfortunately, at present, the former option appears more likely. With President Kibaki out of politics due to his old age, the arch rivals Kenyatta and Ruto have formed an unlikely and frankly obscene electoral partnership (with Uhuru Kenyatta as the presidential candidate and William Ruto as his running mate) in an effort to stop the leading contender Raila Odinga from winning his 3rd bid for the presidency.
The election voting patterns seems to have already divided itself along ethnic lines even though the Kenyatta/Ruto ticket unites two very hostile ethnic groups. This could also mean that the two men who face a trail in The Hague for crimes against humanity could become heads of state, a disaster for the national image of a country with so much to offer. To add to this confusing and depressing situation, the start of the election year has already been marked by a series of violent outbursts in the east of the country between hostile ethnic groups and the increase of cattle rustling with AK-47’s in the north of the country (one incident cost the life of over 40 police officers).
Nevertheless, the resilience of the Kenyan people cannot be underestimated; from the growing middle class to the slums of Kibera (described as one of the largest hubs of innovation by The Economist) there is a true desire to have peaceful elections and secure the long awaited mantle of democracy. This will for progress could radically change the bleak outlook of the coming elections and shake to life a corrupt and inefficient political establishment.
…Bullets
Mali has recently come to everyone’s attention as the French armed forces commence operations to free the North of the country from the Tuareg armed groups whose war for autonomy has been hijacked by Islamist fighters and Libyan weapons. But for African politics the conflict could make or break the effort of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to play a more assertive role in the political and security dilemma of the region.
Indeed, before the French intervention, it was planned that ECOWAS under the coordination of its military cooperation wing (the Economic community of West African States Monitoring Group, ECOMOG) would organize an African force to intervene and aid the government in Bamako against the threat of the North of the country. But, as in all conflicts, the reality of the ground is often much faster than that of the paperwork. As the French foreign minister has constantly re-iterated, this operation should be African led with French military assistance. But the 15-member body has had a difficult history with military operations of this kind in the 1990’s.
It is true that during the bloody conflicts in Liberia and Sierra Leone, ECOWAS launched a number of operations that were partly successful, especially in Sierra Leone. But these operations were plagued by internal dissent between Anglophone and Francophone countries, military miss-management and corruption (the ECOMOG operation in Liberia was re-branded by Liberians in the civil war was as “every car or movable object gone”) with Western forces and the United Nations peacekeepers having to intervene to re-establish order (e.g. Sierra Leone’s deployment of British paratroopers and special forces to support the West African military effort).
The situation in Mali could be the opportunity for ECOWAS and Nigeria to prove their worth as the region’s policeman. This is becoming vital as a new wave of instability derived from religious strife settles in the region, especially in Nigeria where the growth of Islamic fundamentalism is having a devastating effect. But the military operation has yet to go through with the African troops from Nigeria, Benin and Niger waiting to enter the conflict while the French and Malian troops push north. The operation has been, once again, slowed by inadequate equipment, a poor logistical system and back scene political wrangling. The evolution of the situation should provide an interesting perspective in the evolution of African capability.
Europe
The prediction that the next year will be ‘decisive’ for the European Union is not new; we have heard it every year since 2008, once Greece’s troubles became a new and ostensibly unforeseen spectre haunting Europe. In fact, 2013 is as unlikely to see profound institutional or political change in the EU as the previous four. The politics of ‘muddling through’ have become firmly established; in the words of our all-beloved European version of Maggie Thatcher, they are alternativlos – a nice little German adjective/nostrum/effective voter deception that tells European allies “haha, go try to do anything but austerity without my money,” and voters “haha, go try vote anything but me without a single alternative party making a clear commitment to Europe.”
In the meantime, European citizens/pathological nationalists/sheep are made to believe the Eurocrisis is nearing denouement by pointing out that psychologically, market confidence in the Euro is returning, as the Swiss Franc loses value and the London housing price index levels its meteoric rise, two safe havens for investors in times of crisis. Because the Eurozone crisis was only psychological, the fault of irresponsible rating agencies, and not caused by underlying structural problems. No. So there is no need to take uncomfortable political action. No. Continuing the way we used to will bring us back to prosperity. Yes. You just have to believe Angie, no?
Nevertheless there remain a few points the alert cynic should pay attention to in the coming 12 months. David Cameron’s Wednesday speech appeared to open a new chapter in cross-channel relations. Yet once the fog clears (nerdy historical pun intended), will anything really change? Cameron’s new construction plan comes with a gapingly wide open escape route: a European Union painfully aware that Britain has been the second-largest net donor since 2010 will be willing to negotiate, in fact even happy, as Cameron’s unspoken call for a system of variable geometry is as attractive to the continent where Britain’s ‘neo-Gaullist’ blockade of further integration has long been seen as a nuisance (see the fiscal compact). Thus another muddle-through compromise is inevitably on the table, and once the promised referendum looms on the horizon, many a Briton will wonder why Dave-the-tough suddenly appears so coy.
Two key elections will excite Europe’s media over the coming months. The first is the Italian election, where the ‘new’ support for Silvio “I-am-a-multiple-times-convicted-felon-and-paedophile” Berlusconi is surprisingly surprising – that a large but consistently dwindling section of the Italian voters is bemused by the entertainer and sympathises with his legally justified struggle/heroic battle/reality soap/ against the “fascist-communist” Italian judiciary, is old news. A technocratic government pursuing centrist policies headed by Mario Monti will most likely be replaced by – a centrist government pursuing technocratic policies headed by Mario Monti. The second ominous election is the German one of September. With Angie being unconditionally backed by the mouthpiece of German (m)ass sentiment, the BILD-newspaper (imagine the Sun, with more pornography, more in-your-face headline design, and more xeno/islamo/judeo/homo/arachnophobia), and her sole serious opposition sending into the ring a cynical intellectual millionaire, in slight confusion of its self-given ‘workers’ party’ roots, who moreover perpetually self-demolishes by engaging in the deadliest sin politics allows, honesty, the sole question will be how many votes Merkel’s CDU will have to ‘lend’ to its Free Democratic coalition partner to allow them to enter the Bundestag (80% of the FDP’s 10% share in this week’s Niedersachsen state elections were conclusively polled to have been “lend-voters” from the CDU).
2013 may be the year where everything changes in Europe. Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull may explode a second time and send the continent back to a sunless ice-age. European productions may score big-time at the Oscars. Knut the polar bear may be reincarnated in Berlin zoo. Just don’t look to European politics for that change.
United States
Introduction of climate change legislation
On the back of Obama’s inauguration speech, the importance of climate change this year will most likely not be underestimated. With the US having suffered first-hand the devastating effects of climate change, with inundated subways and a closed stock exchange in New York as a result of Hurricane Sandy, it is unlikely the issue will go unnoticed. However, despite Obama’s clear forcefulness of his desire to introduce climate-regulating legislation, this may one more issue that is out of his control. With America still bitterly politically divided, and with the Republicans thinking a lot less about climate change and a lot more about rescuing their own party, Obama may face real problems in getting climate legislation through Congress. Not only will Obama face domestic constraints, but, due to the global nature of climate change, he will also have to be able to enter into successful and appropriate dialogue with the rest of the world on the issue of environmental control. This will require an unprecedented level leadership on behalf of the US in the global debate on climate change; something we have not yet seen under Obama’s first administration.
Immigration
With the election that brought Obama his second term, one thing became astonishingly clear – America’s demographic had most definitely changed. For the first time, women, Hispanic, black and young voters were able to decide the outcome of an election almost single-handedly, while the Republicans were left behind in the 19th century wondering where they went wrong. Now, with the GOP rushing to reform its party, it is most likely that the issue of immigration will take centre stage. This will be part of the GOP’s strategy to try and (re)connect with the sectors of the population they have mainly overlooked in the last few elections, by refusing to focus on the problems of minorities and immigrants. Not only was this also a key issue in Obama’s inaugural address, but also it is also significant in that it can pave the way for domestic political reconciliation. With both Republicans and Democrats making this a priority, it is unlikely that immigration reform will face much opposition in Congress and if this initial cooperation is successful, it may well set the tone for future domestic political cooperation in 2013.
Gun-control and gay-rights reforms:
Again, unsurprisingly, it is increasingly obvious that major gun-control reform will be on the agenda. It has already begun and with another university shooting already on the books in 2013 (at Lone Star Community College in Texas, on the 23rd of January) the pace of reform is likely to pick up speed. With a protest in the capital on Friday, and Obama’s reference to Newtown in his inauguration speech, there is no doubt that major changes will be proposed. However, the problem remains: will Obama be able to overcome the Republicans and the NRA? As opposed to the predictability of gun-control, however, I was pleasantly surprised to hear a reference to gay rights in Obama’s speech on the 21st. Given that this is Obama’s last term, he can get away with trying to push through reforms he might have previously been afraid to, and it seems as if he is intent on supporting gay-rights this time round. However, as with every other issue Obama has shown his support for, he will have to face a politically divided nation, which could, potentially, make all these predictions absolutely irrelevant.
Of course the world has numerous events going on that we should keep our eyes peeled for, but this is just an appetiser and the rest of the news will be the subject of further articles to come! Happy New Year everybody (apparently it is socially acceptable to say so as long as we are still in January…)!
This article has been written in unison by our permanent bloggers: Alexandres Raymakers, Amanda Felberg and Konstantin Sietzy
Photo taken from: http://www.whitemagic.com.au/images/products/crystals/crystalball-110mm.jpg
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