Israel’s intelligence services are famous for some of the most daring covert operations and intelligence gathering missions seen in the world of espionage. The Mossad, Aman, and Shin Bet, Israel’s external, military and internal security services respectively are small in size but large in purpose. Their names strike fear into the hearts of Israel’s adversaries; Operations Diamond, Wrath of God and Spring of Youth are still studied today by intelligence organisations around the world for their methods and far-reaching results. Operation Northern Shield is not an intelligence operation but a military one with one explicit purpose – to locate and destroy Hezbollah attack tunnels which originate in Lebanon and violate Israeli sovereignty. The connection between Israel’s intelligence capabilities and this operation cannot be overstated, and while we will likely never know the details of the intelligence work done in preparation, what is clear is that the operation has far reaching implications for Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and by extension the region.

As of this writing, four attack tunnels have been found in Israeli territory. These tunnels are outfitted to allow for large movement of troops under the border and into Israel where they could attack Israeli military and civilian targets within northern Israel. In the past, Israel has had similar experiences with smaller tunnels on its border with the Gaza Strip that have been built and used by Hamas. Such tunnels are the latest example of Hezbollah acting in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSC) 1701. When the resolution was originally adopted following the 2006 war, the UNSC clearly called for Hezbollah to disarm, withdraw from southern Lebanon and for all parties to respect the Blue Line. This has not happened in the last 12 years following the uneasy ceasefire between the two sides. Hezbollah is continuing to expand its arsenal of missiles up to 150,000 – larger than most states’ military arsenals – while also entrenching itself in southern Lebanon. The organization is also continuing to expand its military infrastructure with Iranian funding, training and arms while also violating the Blue Line in several high-profile instances since 2006. All of this has led Israel to call for a firmer international response to Hezbollah and Iranian activities in the region. It is important to note nearly three dozen states consider Hezbollah a terrorist organization in its entirety including Israel, France, the United States and the Arab League while over fifty states blacklist only the military wing of the organization including most members of the European Union.

Hezbollah has become an important player in the geo-politics of the Middle East as its patron, Iran, has used it to great effect as a counterweight to Israel. Hezbollah’s ability  to launch tens of thousands of rockets falling on Israel’s cities has kept Israel in check on the Israel-Lebanese border. Tehran has also used Hezbollah as a deadly weapon of war in the Syrian Civil War where its fighters have played a crucial role in propping up the Assad regime. The relationship has also benefited Hezbollah as Iranian and Syrian support has made Hezbollah the de-facto rulers of Lebanon, where it fields the largest and most powerful military force in the country and currently holds the Lebanese government hostage to its every demand through the political alliance it leads. Lebanon has become an effective outpost for Iranian interests as Hezbollah’s proxy status provides for little agency. This is similar to what Iran has achieved in Iraq with the Popular Mobilization Units, the Houthis in Yemen and what is currently underway in Syria. All of this is allowing Iran to exert influence across the region, creating a Shiite Crescent across the Levant from Tehran to Beirut.

Iran has been probing Israel’s capabilities for some time via Syria, with this past spring and summer leading to direct clashes between the two for the first time in modern history. The movement of large quantities of military equipment specifically missiles to Lebanon via land, sea and air corridors is in preparation for a conflict between the two sides in what most experts agree is not a matter of if but when. Israel has in response struck Iranian, Hezbollah and Syrian targets and supplies chains throughout Syria in order to slow the flow of high-end weapons deliveries. This includes drones and advanced missile technology amongst others. Operation Northern Shield is Israel pre-empting its enemies by taking away an important weapon from Hezbollah’s arsenal as one can only imagine what heavily armed platoons of Hezbollah fighters would be capable of doing behind Israel’s defensive lines unchecked. Apparently, Israel has long prepared for Operation Northern Shield, even sending some of its military engineers abroad to study on how best to navigate the much thicker rock and soil found on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Israel must be careful about how it conducts the current operation to avoid escalation, while at the same time taking advantage of the preoccupation of Hezbollah with the ongoing conflict in Syria in order to weaken a serious and ongoing threat to the Jewish and democratic state.

Israel and Iran are on a collision course where a future conflict will not be contained to the Israeli-Lebanese border but will likely stretch across the entire breath of the Israel’s shared border with Lebanon and Syria. Israel will also be faced with a new type of hybrid warfare – one which requires a new response as it faces down not only Hezbollah and other semi-conventional or unconventional paramilitary groups, but also likely conventional forces in the form of battle hardened Syrian and elite Iranian military units. Israel will likely be fighting a war of intensity the likes of which it has not fought since the 1973 Yom Kippur War, a conflict scarred into the collective memory of the Israeli public.

There are those who would argue that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, has been a major contributing factor to the current crisis between Israel and Iran. By providing Tehran room to manoeuvre on a regional level through economic and monetary gains, Iran has been able to inject large amounts of cash and arms into its regional policies. A lack of checks and balances on regional military and illicit activities has led directly to Iranian intervention in Syria and an emboldened, well-armed and now blooded Hezbollah. This could lead to a bloodier conflict in the north without serious changes to the current state of affairs in Syria, changes that are only likely to come from Russia not the United States. If the Iranians can be kept in check by Russia within the context of Syria then a conflict can be contained, if not outright prevented in future.

It is in Israel’s interest to continue to delay a future conflict and prepare itself as alarm bells are being sounded within the military establishment on potential cracks within its defences. Israel will likely continue its airstrikes in Syria (with Russian permission). Both Operation Northern Shield and airstrikes will play an important role in slowing down the current force build up and lessen the capabilities of Iran and her proxies close to Israel’s borders. As long as the Syrian Civil War continues and Iran and her proxies are preoccupied with one conflict, a war in the north can be delayed for the time being.