4
Shares
Pinterest Google+
Although news of the Russian affair with the poisoning of Sergei Skripal continues to dominate Russian and British headlines, it is important to remember that Russia also has another conflict – a violent one in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine, where the intensity is also heating up. Dmytro Hutsulyak, the speaker of Ukraine’s defence ministry reports that militants are using RPGs and small arms to attack Novhorodske and Malynove (both in Luhansk region). Adding to this, Russia still occupies Crimea and is intent on keeping a tight control of the demarcation line which was bolstered in August 2016.

A Ukrainian headache

Nonetheless, in a two-hour documentary that was published on the social media accounts of notorious pro-Kremlin TV host Dmitry Kiselev, Putin considered the interviewer’s question of potential de-occupation of Crimea as a ‘mad’ prospect. “There would be no circumstances” under which Putin would give up the Black Sea peninsula to Ukraine. Whether Putin is looking to fortify his foreign policy and domestic image in election season or determine a long-term ‘Russification’ project in an overwhelming ethnically Russian territory is up for debate.  But, experts say that Putin still looks towards the port of Sevastopol in Crimea as a key component in his foreign policy agenda as his key base for black sea naval dominance. Putin is also looking for political legitimacy in this area. Russia’s upcoming election on Sunday may see polling stations set up across Crimea – marking the four-year anniversary of the staged state referendum back in 2014 that aided Russia to annex Crimea. But Ukrainian officials have made their intolerance for this clear. If citizens are caught assisting the Russian elections to be convened in Ukraine, the Ukrainian authorities would land charges of state treason and up to 15 years of imprisonment, according to Oleksander Udovychenko (Ukrainian Deputy Head of Prosecutor’s office in Crimea).

But Putin is not stopping here on embarking the exportation of his election to Ukraine. Ukrainian nationalist political parties aim to counter further attempts of Russians trying to establish polling stations in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and Lviv. The nationalists aim to orchestrate ‘corridors of shame’ for any eligible ethnic Russians that vote in the Russian polling station set up in Ukrainian territories, as a counter-measure in defying any form of Russian intervention in mainland Ukraine. More significantly, the Ukraine parliament took this possibility of illegal Russian election-holding in Ukraine to appeal to the wider international community. Success for Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko came when he received the United States representative Harry Kamian’s word that the US would not recognise these ballots, a day after the UN General assembly had been summoned.

Ukraine in a tug of war 

Relationships between Ukraine and the West have undergone a period of continuous improvement since the election campaign began, much to Russia’s probable frustration. With news of NATO’s strong support of a much-anticipated possibility of Ukrainian membership to the alliance, Poroshenko echoed his gratitude. “I welcome the important, long-awaited and logical decision of NATO to increase Ukraine’s ambitions regarding the Alliance,” the President said on his official Facebook page. Such a statement will be perceived as a provocation in Russia, as closer Ukrainian collusion with NATO is a threat to Russian geopolitical ambitions. For Putin, Ukraine is a key sphere of influence which Russia cannot afford to lose. Although Ukraine’s warming embrace of western institutions may be received as humbling for NATO and the EU, it does not come risk-free in the form of possibly aggravating Russian retaliation – as seen in the 2014 invasion.

Alas, a Ukrainian nation within NATO and the EU means that the influence of the West is ever closer to the Russian capital of Moscow. Full NATO access in Ukraine means that Moscow is close in range both geographically and ideologically. A ‘westernised’ Ukraine is also a huge economic concern too. Access through the Odessa port will mean another NATO entity to challenge Russian Naval presence in the Black Sea. Additionally, EU membership of Ukraine will create anxiety for Russian exports to Ukraine, who are their fourth largest export market. This holds much credence of worry for Russia who is undergoing excessive strain in stimulating their own economic growth.

With Putin’s fears of Ukrainian detachment from Russia driven by Poroshenko, Putin has shown in his recent rhetoric that they will not back down from NATO and EU expansionism. For instance, at the turn of this month in his state of the nation speech, Putin unveiled an ‘invincible’ nuclear weapon that would make the West take “account of a new reality and understand that Russia’s nuclear power is not a bluff”. 

For Putin, Ukraine is a key sphere of influence which Russia cannot afford to lose
Most surprisingly about his mindset was his remarks that if his country would be attacked by any foreign power, he would be adamant on his intent on utilising his new nuclear capabilities – even if the world would cease to exist after imminent nuclear launches: “Why do we need a world if Russia isn’t there?” Such antagonism has many experts pondering the potential for a more physical presence of Russian ambitions. Further to this, Theresa May’s recognition of a ‘distinct pattern of Russian aggression’ (coming from the nerve agent affair recently in Salisbury) both in the UK and to its allies, including Ukraine, have aimed to re-energise an international consensus surrounding Russian hostility. Though, a more reasserted Russia could look to escalate the Ukrainian conflict or even create a new frontier in the Baltic states in order to reassert their geopolitical authority.

The Poroshenko presidency

Such show of strength against Russia’s potential enemies has had limited impact on the presidency of President Poroshenko and his nationalist agenda for a more politically powerful and modern Ukraine. In a Financial Times interview five days after Putin’s speech, Poroshenko did not show any signs of shying away from making optimistic statements about Ukraine’s progress in reforming. Everything from removing a Soviet-style education system to big leaps forward in revealing the launch of a new ‘anti-corruption’ package was proudly explained in his interview. Poroshenko had welcomed the IMF’s support for his efforts in reforming the country: “I am pleased that the IMF said that we’ve done more reform in the three years of my presidency than in the previous 25 years.”

It should also be noted that along with commending his own legislative achievements in the Rada (Ukraine Parliament), the president came across as a genuine believer in the western model of development.

a more reasserted Russia could look to escalate the Ukrainian conflict or even create a new frontier in the Baltic states in order to reassert their geopolitical authority
It is no shock therefore that he would look to praise the close cooperation of US and British intelligence services in countering Russian election interference too (Poroshenko will stand for election next year) and openly welcome advisers from the west to help restructure a fragmented Ukrainian economy. Moreover, Poroshenko wishes to highlight the conflict in the country as a war that should not be forgotten.

His approach in dealing with Russia and their aggression in the Donbass does not stop there – rather he denounces their international ambitions in reasserting themselves as a global hegemon. In contrast with Russia, Poroshenko relies on alliances and partnerships in order to consolidate Ukraine’s standing in the world. His utilisation of UN frameworks in advancing his country’s agenda aids the spreading of his message out to the Western world and works as an opportunity to firmly resist various forms of Russian aggression. However, Ukraine will struggle to project their message out in an already crowded international debate, from the situation in Syria to US relations with North Korea.

The future ahead?

The result of the election looms soon. It is an election where polls predict that Putin will achieve around 70% of the vote against his eight challengers. Never before has Putin received such a large approval rating before an election (notwithstanding that international observers have regarded the previous 2 decades of Russian elections as rigged), leading most to believe this election will be more of a statement of simply ‘business as usual’ for Russian politics. Albeit, foreign policy still remains a prominent issue in the election campaign for Putin. With every passing day until the election comes, Putin seems to brandish his nuclear capabilities vigorously to ward off any threats.

But then, whoever is behind the helm of Russian foreign policy, Ukraine will always remain a significant geopolitical threat for Russian success in 2018 and beyond. Though this year’s World Cup in Russia should be an enjoyable affair, it will surely prove to be a major turning point in Russian foreign policy after it convenes, if Sunday’s election itself is not. After the World Cup and election, Russia may be once again disconnected from international affairs, giving them free rein to exert unprecedented engrossment in the Baltics or Ukraine. But what can be taken from this is that for Ukraine, closer collusion with the west is not something the Ukrainian government are dismissively shying away from, given a precarious and developing Russian position. Poroshenko has presented himself as more of a statesman, rather than a politician.

For me, his conduct appears genuine and prudent in the face of painful odds. But likewise, amidst a war in which many in the west forget, the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will very much continue to be volatile. How far, how successful can Poroshenko lead his country out of the claws of ‘Russian aggression’? Will Ukraine embolden their position to become a subject, rather than an object, in international affairs?

Author

Previous post

Office Hours: Peter Trubowitz on The Age of Trump

Next post

The Father of AfD – Interview with Dr. Bernd Lucke

1 Comment

  1. simon bailey
    16/03/2018 at 10:40 pm

    Fantastic that you have given this story a story a Go….To be fair Russia is playing a Cold War Game in a 4 G world , impressed that you manage to grasp Key Elements , but you miss the key points, Russia sees the UK , GB , Whatever you call it, as the weak link in Europe , there prize is the Balkans, and they will get it, Remember whilst the rest of Europe gives permission for new Mosques, Russia is tearing them down, whilst Europe gives more rights, to LGBT , Russians go hunting them.Racism , Bigotry, and Anti Islam , are a way of Life for your average Joe in Russia, who should we back Rob , our American friends, with there Intel, or the Ivan the not so terrible …. ?I think we are in safe hands if we allowed Putin to get is way, im non plussed, MI5 SECRET SERVICE, WE HAVE BEEN DROPPING THEM Ruskis , SINCE THE COLD WAR