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Throughout the last 60 years, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been the centrepiece of the major geo-political issues in international society. Every year, the conflict and its insurmountable problems re-surface in the world of international politics in what both sides describe as a war of survival. In our modern connected world, everyone seems to have a position on the issue. However, some of us continue to sit on the fence, seeking the easy way out of an intricately complex conflict and, as usual, those of us in the no man’s land of the debate try to make sense of the crisis. 

On Wednesday 14th of November, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) unleashed its modern military arsenal in Operation ‘Pillar of Defence’ with a wave of surgical strikes that killed Ahmed Jabari (commander of Hamas military wing) and ten other Palestinians, including three children. Since then, the conflict has escalated in a situation characterised by deadly surgical strikes, waves of imprecise rocket attacks and a ‘fancy-named’ missile shield. The last week has already claimed the lives of more than 100 Palestinians, with the IDF admitting that a third of Palestinian casualties were civilians. Indeed, even a guy on the fence can see that with Israel’s indiscriminate targeting (such as homes, broadcast station and even funeral services), the civilian population is bound to be killed (a direct violation of the Fourth Geneva conventions by the way). Israel has also suffered, despite how outdated the Gaza militants arsenal is. The last week has seen three Israelis killed and the country paralysed in a constant state of fear. But who is to blame for this new wave of violence?

 

The sky is illuminated by explosions from Israeli military operations.
The sky is illuminated by explosions from Israeli military operations.
In the manner of all fence sitters we will look at and try to understand both sides. The IDF announced that it had responded to unprovoked attacks unleashed in the Hamas controlled Gaza strip. Indeed during the preceding weekend over a 100 rockets were fired into Southern Israel from the Gaza strip, wounding five Israeli civilians and, as The Jerusalem Post reported, four IDF soldiers. Since then the conflict has escalated quite drastically. But it seems that the same cycle is always present: Palestinians militants lead a series of uncoordinated and inefficient attacks and Israel responds with its full arsenal – a matter of self-defence. But in 2011, the IDF reported that 680 rockets, mortars and grad missiles were shot from the Gaza strip. So why act so forcefully now?
 
Ladies and gentlemen, the answer is politics. The current Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu is facing elections on the 22ndof January 2013 and is leading the polls. However, in the previous general elections in 2009, his main electoral stronghold was in the South of the country: the region bearing the brunt of the current violence. Indeed in 2009, the city of Siderot and the south’s main city Be’er Sheva, gave Bibi’s Likud most of its safe seats in the Knesset (Israeli Parliament). With general elections coming ahead, it would be very unwise for Netanyahu to let his political stronghold be showered with exploding fireworks. The second most prominent party in the South is Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, which is one of the main coalition parties of Bibi’s current government. The cabinet reaction is therefore political: show strength to guarantee the continual support of the South in the general elections. But why not send in the troops?
 
The last war Israel was engulfed in did not turn out too well for the last government of Ehud Olmert (2006-2009). The prime minister and his defence minister, Amir Peretz, were highly criticised with the way the conflict was handled in Lebanon and Gaza. Bibi is well aware that a war in Gaza could be very costly in the polls and might destroy his chances for re-election. Most importantly, the rules of the game have fundamentally changed; Mubarak is gone and Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim brotherhood, which is currently in control in Cairo, has more leeway to act. Egypt is a vital gateway for Israel in the Middle East and losing cordial relations with Cairo could make things much worse for Israel. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi however cannot fully pledge his support for Hamas because of his needs to re-kindle relationships with the west (especially when the European Union is going to give him a £4.5 Billion aid package). But, a ground invasion would turn Morsi’s neutral and conciliatory position into a more radical one, in order to insure his political survival against internal pressure from Egyptians who want a stronger stance against Israeli incursions. But why would Gaza start shooting now?
 
Would you like being stuck in an open-air prison?  
 
By: Alexandre Raymakers
Image Source: Radioislam

Author

  • Alexandre Raymakers

    Alex Raymakers is an undergraduate student in History and International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He has lived in Africa, notably Kenya, for most of his life. He writes about African affairs for The London Globalist.

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