In February, France recalled its ambassador from Rome, which hasn’t happened since Italy declared war on France in June 1940 . Macron, the defender of Europe’s liberal order and the leaders of Italy’s populist coalition have evidently never been on the same page. However, the diplomatic relationship between the two nations has now reached an all time low, considering the period since World War II. What has caused this rift between two historic allies and founding members of the European Union?

Franco-Italian diplomatic relations started to deteriorate when Italy, previously run by pro-EU governments, turned populist in June 2018 after no party managed to achieve a parliamentary majority during the March elections. A coalition was formed in June with the naming of two deputy prime ministers: Di Maio from the right-wing M5S (Five-Star Movement) and Salvini, leader of the far-right League party. Ever since, the two countries have been caught in a war of words, mutually blaming each other for what is wrong with Europe.

The first spark was immigration. Macron blamed Italy for turning away a migrant ship in June 2018. Italy retaliated by calling Macron a hypocrite over the thousands of people he had previously turned away and sent back to Italy. Salvini and Di Maio accused Macron of letting Italy bear the brunt of the migrant crisis and of lack of solidarity over the matter in general. They have even gone as far as calling France responsible for migration because of its colonial rule in Africa. Since then, the two countries have clashed on numerous issues, both concerning domestic and foreign policy.

The last straw was Italy’s involvement in the Yellow Vests movement, which has been plaguing Macron’s presidency for months. In early February, Di Maio, the leader of the populist party M5S, and Italy’s prime minister Giuseppe Conte met a prominent figure of the movement, implying their support for it. On February 7th, France decided enough was enough and recalled its ambassador from Rome, calling Italy out for the recent string of provocative diatribes culminating in the backing of the Yellow Vests. Indeed, if Macron had previously been willing to overlook criticism from Italy’s two far-right deputy prime ministers over issues such as immigration, he did not tolerate Italy’s leaders showing official support for the movement. After urging the protesters to “not give up”, Di Maio tweeted after the meeting that “the wind of change has crossed the Alps” . Of course, the gesture was deemed unacceptable by France and Macron has clearly stated he would not allow Italy to interfere in France’s domestic affairs and further undermine their relations.

Italy’s newfound antagonism towards France and the M5S’s apparent willingness to damage Italy’s relationship with France has both domestic and European components. The M5S has been losing votes ever since they came into power and showing support for the Yellow Jacket is a tactic to strengthen their electoral base at home. On a European level and with elections for the European Parliament imminent, the M5S has realized it is politically profitable with their base to underline France’s ongoing issues. Their recent engagement with the Yellow Jackets is in fact an “electoral stunt” and is part of a wider search for allies in the upcoming European elections. The M5S is looking to build a coalition with other like-minded groups; and the Yellow Jackets (who are in the process of creating a political party to run in the European elections) are natural allies.

This diplomatic feud is then likely to further deteriorate until the May elections which are now at the forefront of this crisis. Both sides are using their differences to obtain political influence and advance their own agenda. In light of this, Macron’s historic decision to recall his ambassador appears to be politically justified. While the M5S’s campaign tactic is to use the gilets jaunes to undermine Macron’s image, Macron is positioning himself as a counterweight against populism hoping that it will serve him in the upcoming elections. He is also using Italian involvement to weaken the legitimacy and popularity of the yellow jackets movement.

But what are the implications of this diplomatic crisis for the EU? Italy and France are two founding members of the EU and their dispute naturally raises concerns over its future. A rupture of diplomatic relations would considerably damage the EU, which has continuously been plagued by internal disunity. From Brexit to this diplomatic crisis, another public display of division would also affect the EU’s global influence and its ability to speak as a united actor. A divided Europe would also leave more room for an anti-EU populist takeover. In fact, this crisis is tearing at an already weakened Europe by preventing the EU from taking any initiative. France can no longer work with Italy, which is paralysing decision-making at the EU level. The crisis has, for example, threatened Macron’s plans for Europe as his proposal for reforms was rejected, both by Italy and Germany.

This diplomatic crisis is representative of the split that has emerged within Europe in the last decade. At the root of the problem is Italy’s and France’s two opposing visions of what Europe should be; they are in fact two sides of the same coin. Both French and Italian voters share the same awareness of the issues that plague Europe and a similar lack of trust in the institutions that represent them, both at the domestic and European level, but have chosen different solutions. The core issue is that the Italians feel like the EU has failed them and are now advocating a position fundamentally opposed to Macron’s liberal stance. They are essentially fighting for a different vision of Europe and the May elections will determine which vision will come on top.

However, it might also be the case that the diplomatic crisis will have positive effects on the EU. As they interfere in each other’s affairs, France and Italy are publicly talking and fighting over issues (such as migration) that have been plaguing Europe for a long time. By doing so, they are also getting their respective population more closely involved with European politics by proving their relevance to national politics, which is something that the EU has always struggled with. The EU has too often been seen as a faceless bureaucracy that has little relevance to the life of the average European. This is a major issue as it dissuades people from engaging with European politics which in turn fuels populist complaints that the EU is an inefficient institution. The Franco-Italian rupture is proving this wrong by creating a space for political debate which is closer to the people. National political disputes are now more closely interlinked with the EU which might have the opposite effect from what the M5S wants. This is clearly a new way of doing politics for the EU. And this debate might after all not be what breaks Europe but what allows it to move forward.