As Iowa sets to kick off the primaries election for the Presidential candidates of both the Republican and the Democratic parties, there is a sense of excitement looming and unease – a strange mix without a doubt. The word that best summarises the current campaign in the US is surprise. On both sides of the political spectrum we have seen unexpected developments that no political analyst could have envisaged one year ago. However, what will the choice of the American people entail for the rest of the world? With candidates like Donald Trump or Bernie Sanders, this is a million-dollar question. Yet the Presidential contest may well end up being a fight between these two men who have appeared on the fringes of their respective parties yet have managed to stir enough support to place them at the forefront of the Republican and Democratic parties.

Some may say, in the case of Bernie Sanders, this resembles the ‘Jeremy Corbyn case’ that we saw in the Labour Party elections – can an outcast secure a top position and if so, will the likes of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders be able to lead the US and granted the status of a ‘moral leader of the world’ as so is often the case with the US President. Donald Trump, moral leader? Yes this baffles me as well…

As current poll results show, Donald Trump is leading Iowa with 28% followed by Ted Cruz at 25% – both gentlemen are not the type of candidates that the GOP establishment wanted to see at the forefront of their primaries. Yet with Donalnd Trump’s success and his ability to gather large amounts of support from the fraction of the population that have felt abandoned by the Washington elites and who blame their economic circumstances not on the structural framework which Donald Trump himself has exploited to get to the position that he is currently at but on the immigrants and Muslims. It is interesting how Donald Trump, a multi-billionaire real estate mogul, who has utilised the lobbying system in Washington to further his political interest is criticising the very establishment that he has been part of. Yet this reality does not detract supporters – he has cleverly manipulated this information to claim that he is the only candidate who has the experience to deal with this by not accepting any donations from interest groups. Yet the level of his hypocrisy goes beyond anything that we can image. Recently I watched a comical video compilation (here is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpKiP_gmDS8)  which clearly exposes Trump’s character – say or do anything that gathers as much support as possible without really standing by your word. The prospect of such an individual of becoming the Presidential Nominee for the GOP and then potentially the President of the US makes me uncomfortable as none of us can predict how he will conduct foreign policy. After all this is an individual who is committed to using all the necessary military means to ‘rain in Iran’.

In the case of Democrats, some claim that the result is too close to call with most polls putting Hillary Clinton at 45% and Bernie Sanders at 42% (subject to error). Many have started to claim that the Clinton’s election campaign begins to resemble her run in 2008 in which she emerged as a leader at the start and then failed to secure the nomination after a long and exhausting campaign. However, whilst Bernie Sanders has gathered much support, most of his populist rhetoric has faced strong criticism from think tanks and the current Democratic establishment with Nancy Pelosi calling his healthcare plans as unattainable. Some say that whilst initially Sanders may lead in the Democratic primaries, Clinton will easily beat him in larger states where she is seen as a competent with the New York Times describing her ‘the most qualified potential President in the history of the US’. However, the Clinton campaign has underestimated Sanders before and have been taken by surprise over his recent success in poll numbers. Therefore, the contest in the democratic primaries is not as clear cut as it may be in the GOP camp.

My personal prediction is that the Presidential contest will end up being a Trump vs Clinton fight. Who will secure the top job in that fight it is hard to call. Personally, I had never though that Trump would gather so much support so what’s not to say that he will become the next President of the US? One can only speculate. Either way, the months ahead of us will most likely be the one of the most exciting and uncertain in the history of US politics. Some even say that Bloomberg is considering an independent run… Now that will shake up things without a single doubt!