Politically uniformed voters have just as much power at the ballot box as those supposedly ‘in the know’. To ignore this basic fact is to underestimate the ‘rule of the people’ and the potential power society as a whole has to create change. Growing hostility towards Europe and UK immigration left unaddressed by Westminster politicians has allowed the momentum of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) to persist, and for the niche party, once considered irrelevant, to now be considered of vital importance in next year’s general election outcome. An inability to curb this growing momentum will jeopardise the future stability of British Parliamentary politics and allow a simplistic party a ‘democratic’ voice on the most prominent national stage – the House of Commons.

The threat UKIP poses is unquestionably real. The local and European elections in May of this year proved that. The first time a party other than the Conservatives or Labour has won a national election for 100 years, UKIP were able to take 27.5% of the vote, get 24 UKIP politicians into the European Parliament, and prove quite convincingly that they are a now a force to be reckoned with. The 43.1% turnout may have represented ‘protest’ voting, or not been a full representation of the UK electorate. However, the fact that in 2010, general election turnouts did not surpass 65% means that actually the UKIP victory could be considered an indicator for 2015. In the same manner that the Liberal Democrats were able to act as the ‘kingmaker’ last time around, their slip to 6% in conjunction with the rise of Nigel Farage’s party to a 15% popularity ratings in the latest YouGov poll means that the likelihood is that this responsibility shall be passed on – and worryingly so.

UKIP will not compromise on their flagship policy in the same manner as the Liberal Democrats did on tuition fees. Nigel Farage would sooner allow a hung parliament or limited government than permit such a circumstance. And even more fundamentally, the possibility of a UKIP-Conservative/Labour coalition is daunting. It will be impossible for our mainstream parties to reconcile and create a joint manifesto with a party that for instance advocates a policy of ‘No Political Correctness’ – inadvertently creating an environment for racism and prejudice behaviour. Or a party that will “make cuts to foreign aid that are real and rigorous.” What does that even mean? Despite the obscenity, the threat remains real so long as Cameron and co. continue to neglect the cold facts. The defection of both Mark Reckless and Brooks Newmark from the Conservative Party to UKIP ahead of the annual party conference that began on Sunday is only further proof of that. One eye will certainly be on the upcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood to see whether further gains will be made by the ‘Farage crusade’.

UKIP have been able to exploit a chasm in contemporary British politics hesitantly unchartered by mainstream British parties. And a failure of mass media and Westminster to take the political party seriously has allowed the organisation to do so. UKIP primarily represent a disaffected working class ignored by career politicians. They represent the people that are perceivably having their ‘job and home stolen’ by immigrants. An even more recent defecting Tory member, Former Deputy Mayor of London Richard Barnes, suggested that UKIP “speak the language of the people”. The party and its members may view the world in a much more simplistic way than they possibly should, fuelled by nationalistic propaganda displayed in The Daily Mail and such. However, the fact remains that big political names are beginning to join the movement, and at a fast pace.

The Conservative Party have been left with an unenviable juggle between aligning with moderated political preferences held in Parliament, and those of more right-wing backbenchers rebelling and in the cases mentioned above, jumping ship, to achieve political aims. Even the seemingly light-hearted comment of the ever-comical Boris Johnson, that London homes should be sold to Londoners instead of ‘oligarchs from the Planet Zog’, reflects an icy truth back on the current situation in Britain. Immigration is a probing issue, and UKIP are winning.

Cameron has remained ambiguous on his and the Conservative position regarding Europe. There does appears a clear consensus amongst the majority of moderates that there needs to be a re-negotiation of the terms of commitment to the supranational process. However, should the UKIP rise continue beyond control, a forced independence agenda can only be assumed inevitable, and who knows what else a rise of UKIP could cause. If the current problems that they distinctly represent remain completely unaddressed or are not satisfactorily dealt with, the entire political system in Britain could be turned upside down. Watch this space.

Louis Montebello