Defying the Odds: Syria – One Year On

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It has been nearly a year since the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led coalition overthrew Al-Assad’s regime. With the end of over 50 years of the Al-Assad family rule, joy and relief engulfed the streets. Hundreds of detainees were released from Saydnaya, Assad’s most notorious prison, where they had been held for over a decade. From the ashes of 13 years of civil war, an unlikely figure emerged: Ahmed Al-Sharaa. He was to become Syria’s new leader and guide the country through the upcoming year, changing Syria’s trajectory.

Internal Politics

Domestically, Syria faces a stagnant economy that is still reeling from years of sanctions and war, leaving its banks on the brink of collapse. This situation indicates that it will take time for the economy to adjust to the new reality. The manufacturing industry, for instance, once protected by Assad’s trade barriers, is now struggling to compete with cheaper imports from China and Turkey. However, in this area, there is hope for the country, as businesses are beginning to return, and the tourism industry is expected to grow in the coming years, especially once political stability is achieved.

Syria’s ethnic diversity adds an additional layer of complexity, as it remains a source of tension within the country’s fragile political environment. The government so far been struggling to maintain control across the country. This has been evident in the attempted coup by pro-Assad loyalists in Jableh, which resulted in the death of 1,400 people in March, as well as in clashes between members of the Druze community and security forces in July. Kurdish forces continue to control parts of Northeastern Syria, but the government remains determined to integrate the Kurds. This was demonstrated in March when Al-Sharaa signed an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to integrate its 60,000 fighters into state institutions. This move signals hopes for increased representation, which is a positive step towards national unity. This is especially important for Syria, as Assad weaponised minorities and used sectarianism to maintain his rule. Efforts to improve engagement between different groups under Al-Sharaa are therefore crucial for creating a truly inclusive state.

Yet Syria’s challenges are not limited to its own borders. Currently, Syria’s biggest battle remains to stop Israel’s continued encroachment into its borders. The presence of Israeli troops in the Golan Heights presents a significant violation of “Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, says Syrian Foreign Minister, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also expressed concern over Netanyahu's “very public” visit to this area, as it contradicts the 1974 disengagement agreement. To further advance its strategic interests, Israel supports minority groups opposing the Syrian government, which contributes to instability and undermines the sense of national unity that is crucial for Syria's stability.

Syria’s place internationally

With Syria’s newfound independence comes a chance to forge its own place on the international stage. Syria has long been recognised as a crossroads between East and West. Al-Sharaa’s past affiliations with Al-Qaeda had originally been deemed reason enough to maintain sanctions on Syria. It is therefore a significant development for Syria that he has now been removed from the UN, UK and US sanction lists, allowing him to travel freely and represent his country globally. Al-Sharaa has announced plans to reopen Syria’s embassy in the USA after it was closed for a decade. Trump has encouraged Syria to join a US-led coalition against ISIS in the Middle East, and Syria has agreed to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces into the Syrian Army.

Al-Sharaa has made significant progress in lobbying the US government to lift its sanctions on Syria. This should facilitate the rebuilding of the economy and increased prosperity for its citizens. It also provides opportunities for the US and other international companies to invest in economic and development projects across Syria, which is essential to its stability. This landmark decision followed Al-Sharaa’s historic visit to the White House, marking the first time a Syrian President has ever visited. This event shows the remarkable diplomatic strength and will of Al-Sharaa and his new government. A united and strong Syria is key for regional stability, as well as limiting Chinese, Russian and Iranian influence in the region, which is very much in the USA’s interests.

However, despite the benefits of Syria’s improved relations with the US, it must avoid becoming another one of its puppets in the region. Syria seeks to carve out its own independent path, distancing itself from the influence of the ‘West’. This intention was evident in Syrian diplomat Assad Al-Shaibani’s visit to China, where discussions focused on Chinese aid in Syria’s reconstruction. Al-Sharaa also visited Russia, a former ally of Assad, to solidify past agreements over its naval port in Tartous. Through these diplomatic efforts, Syria has engaged with all members of the UN Security Council, including an earlier meeting with France, demonstrating its commitment to building strong international relationships to forge its new independent path.

Although Syria still faces many obstacles on its path to becoming a stable democracy, it continues to make progress. Al-Sharaa realises the need to avoid the exclusion of political opponents to prevent alienating segments of the population, with the goal of achieving national unity, which can only truly be achieved through the inclusion of all ethnic and religious groups. He must maintain his commitment to justice and accountability for perpetrators of violence, especially in a country that accommodates such diverse ethnic and religious backgrounds. Yet while improving relations with the West is important, it should not come at the expense of Syria’s own sovereignty and image. Syria must pursue its own independent path on the global stage, ensuring that its own population sees that the country prioritises its own interests and remains legitimate, rather than becoming a ‘puppet’ of external powers.

Continued commitments to justice, inclusion and independence could lead to a stable and prosperous Syria – a future that seemed impossible just a year ago, and one that the people who have endured decades of dictatorship and civil war rightly deserve.

Written by Ursina Dessai

Edited by Rana Zeidan