Gateway to the Arctic: Finland's Rising Geopolitical Importance

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A race across the Arctic

As the Arctic becomes more accessible due to climate change, regional players, such as the United States, Canada, China and Russia, are scrambling to assert their influence over this region of ever-growing importance. 

As competition in the Arctic intensifies, one country is positioned to gain far more influence than its size would suggest: Finland. The reason is straightforward. The Arctic is extremely difficult to navigate, and the single biggest obstacle is ice. The Northern Sea Route along Russia’s coast is navigable for roughly four months a year, while Canada’s Northwest Passage opens only briefly and remains unpredictable. Any territory across the central Arctic (Trans-polar) will not be reliably usable for decades, but if it were to open due to climate change, it would offer a significantly shorter shipping distance between major economic hubs in Europe and East Asia compared to traditional routes via the Suez or Panama Canals. To operate in these waters, states rely on icebreakers, which are specialised ships with reinforced hulls and powerful engines that can cut channels through sea ice and escort other vessels. Without them, most Arctic routes remain inaccessible.

Punching above one’s weight

This is where Finland’s long-term investment pays off. It designs and builds some of the world’s most advanced icebreakers and has developed a level of technical expertise that few countries can match. Finnish shipyards have produced vessels for their own fleet, for NATO partners, and historically, even for Russia. Finland has designed approximately 80% of the world’s icebreakers, and around 60% of them have been produced in Finnish shipyards. As Arctic shipping becomes more commercially attractive and strategically important, the ability to open and maintain these routes gives Finland significant leverage.

Finland’s leverage in the Arctic is reinforced by where it sits. The country lies next to the Kola Peninsula, home to Russia’s Northern Fleet and much of its strategic nuclear submarine force. As NATO’s newest member, Finland now forms a key part of the alliance’s northern flank, alongside Sweden, linking the Baltic region with the Arctic. This geography gives Finland an outsized role in how the United States, Russia and other Arctic actors think about security in the High North.

Finland’s military preparedness is another factor that elevates its current position in Arctic and transatlantic politics. Unlike many other European states that downsized their armies after the Cold War, Finland has kept a defence model centred not on deterrence or alliances - it only joined NATO in 2022 -, but on national readiness. Finland’s conscription policy ensures that a large, well-trained reserve is always readily available and capable of mobilising quickly. Its forces are equipped for forested and Arctic terrain, while its air and naval capabilities are modern and well-adapted to the northern conditions: “We have 62 F-18s. We bought 64 F-35s from the U.S. We have long-range missiles, land, air, and sea. And we have the biggest artillery in Europe, together with Poland” as stated by Finnish President Alexander Stubb. This self-reliant approach has also been noticed in Washington, particularly by US President Donald Trump, who has shown great respect towards countries like Finland that take their own defence seriously. President Stubb often jokes about Finland's military capabilities and recently stated that “[Finland has a capable and well-equipped military, and] we don't have them because we're worried about Stockholm. We have them because we want to have a deterrent towards Russia”. 

This combination of military preparedness and continuous investment into icebreakers has earned Finland an unusual amount of respect in the White House. These close ties with President Trump make President Stubb one of the few European leaders with a direct line, giving Helsinki a rare ability to influence both EU and US political decision-making at a moment when Arctic strategy and transatlantic coordination remain uncertain.

The Arctic Guide

The United States’ limited Arctic capabilities make Finland an even more essential ally. Washington has long acknowledged its shortcomings in its northern capabilities. The US operates only a small number of icebreakers; it lacks extensive Arctic infrastructure and has a limited cold-weather operational experience compared to states like Finland. As the North Pole has started to thaw, these shortcomings matter.

Finland brings decades of expertise in precisely the areas where the U.S. is weakest. Due to Finnish government investment into shipyards, firms have the capacity to build icebreakers in only a fifth of the time compared to the U.S. and icebreaker operation is more cost-effective due to it being government-controlled. At the same time, Finland itself operates a fleet of around eight state-owned icebreakers, supported by highly developed northern logistics networks. This expertise gives Finland value that extends well beyond defence-related cooperation. 

As the United States seeks to update its Arctic strategy, Finland has the much-needed technical capacity to support a more consistent American presence in the High North. It is for this reason that President Donald Trump ordered 11 icebreakers from Finland in October this year. The US is not the only ally seeking Finnish expertise. Canada has also signed agreements with Helsinki to acquire new icebreakers. Taken together, these decisions suggest that many NATO states increasingly recognise Finland’s specialised capabilities and are willing to rely on them to close critical gaps in their own Arctic infrastructure.

Within the European Union, Finland also plays a stabilising role in Arctic policy. The EU has long struggled to turn its Northern ambitions into concrete influence, partly due to limited resources and the reluctance of member states to invest in Arctic capabilities. Finland’s icebreaking expertise, environmental research networks and experience in cross-border Arctic governance help fill this gap. As the EU debates how to balance environmental guidelines with strategic concerns, Finland’s input is increasingly shaping the conversation.

Finland’s significance also lies in its predictability. While larger European states often shift between competing priorities, Finland’s strategic culture has been consistent for decades: invest in defence, maintain readiness, prepare for uncertainty and avoid over-reliance on others. These principles now align with the needs of a region undergoing rapid transformation. The combination of geographic importance, pragmatic politics and military credibility gives Finland a role that extends well beyond what its population size might imply.

As the Ice Breaks

China’s growing interest in the Arctic adds another layer to this emerging landscape. Although geographically distant, Beijing has branded itself a “near-Arctic state” and has steadily expanded its footprint through scientific stations in Svalbard, dual-use satellite monitoring, and icebreaker-supported research voyages. Its long-term bet is that climate change will make the Northern Sea Route commercially viable, turning it into a shortcut between Asian and European markets.

Much of this activity hinges on cooperation with Russia. Moscow has eagerly welcomed Chinese capital and technology as Western sanctions have starved it of alternatives, formalised through agreements such as China’s participation in Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project and joint development of Northern Sea Route infrastructure and navigation systems. Alongside these economic ties, the two have expanded coordination on satellite surveillance and Arctic research missions.

This broader geopolitical competition is unfolding against a backdrop of increased military activity across the High North. Russia has reactivated Soviet-era bases, started to modernise its Northern Fleet and expanded air and missile defences along the Kola Peninsula. At the same time, NATO has deepened coordination across Norway, Sweden and Finland, turning the northern edge of the alliance into a continuous operational space for the first time. Large-scale NATO exercises have become regular features of the region. While none of these steps necessarily make confrontation more likely, they highlight how the Arctic is shifting to deterrence and rising in tensions. Finland’s location means it sits at the centre of this shift, whether it wants to or not.

The opening of the Arctic will not create a new global order overnight, nor will Finland suddenly become a great power. But the region is becoming one of the key arenas where trade, climate and security matters are starting to become more important, and the states with the tools to operate there inevitably become more influential. Finland happens to possess several of those tools, from world-leading icebreakers to Arctic-trained forces to political access in Washington and Brussels. 

As the Arctic continues to shift, Finland’s relevance will grow not because it seeks influence, but because its capability and geography give it a central role in whatever the region evolves into. In a space where access is limited and conditions are unforgiving, the countries that can operate effectively will shape the power relations of the Arctic. Finland has been considered a relatively unimportant player on the world stage, but due to the rising Arctic tensions, it is finding itself to be one of the more prominent voices in the West in matters of security and the Arctic.

Written by Dominik Császár

Edited by Lisanne Koehler