Gunboat Diplomacy? What is Pushing the United States to Push for Regime Change in Venezuela?

The United States Navy aircraft carriers USS Gerald R. Ford (foreground) and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Some Important Context

Since August 2025, the United States has deployed a military buildup in the Caribbean, specifically in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guantanamo Bay, consisting of six surface ships, the Iwo Jima Amphibious group, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group. It is currently the most significant deployment in the area since the 1994 ‘Operation Uphold Democracy’ in Haiti. Additionally, 14 F-35s, B-52 heavy bombers, and Predator drones have joined to complement the air assets aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford. 

While this unprecedented deployment was initially described as an escalation of U.S. President Donald Trump’s war against “narco-terrorists”, with White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating on 28 August, that “the president is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice.” There was a shift in rhetoric starting in October towards regime change in Venezuela, with a State Department spokesman telling Newsweek that, [President Nicolás] “Maduro is not the legitimate leader of Venezuela; he’s a fugitive of American justice who undermines regional security and poisons Americans.” Then in November, the State Department designated the “Cartel of the Suns” as a foreign terrorist organisation, with the U.S. accusing the Maduro regime of leading it. This designation gives the U.S. government the legal cover to launch airstrikes and military operations against the Venezuelan government. The month then ended with a phone call between Trump and Maduro, where sources close to the President made it clear that the buildup and threats of airstrikes would only end if Maduro and his allies leave Venezuela immediately and allow a transition into a democratic government, signalling that regime change is a primary aim for the U.S. 

The rapid shift in rhetoric in justifying the buildup from targeting cartels all over the Americas towards targeting the Venezuelan government itself raises questions about what is actually motivating the U.S.’s position on regime change. To answer this question, the article postulates two theories. 

Theory 1: The 2026 Midterms and Rallying Key Voters 

The Trump administration is aware that it faces an uphill battle in the 2026 midterm elections. Historically, the party in the White House always loses seats in midterm elections with very rare exceptions, and Trump’s net approval rating has dropped from a high of +11.7% to -11.2%; on the economy and inflation, Trump is at -17.4% and -26.1%, respectively, and has even dipped on immigration, with -5.4% approval (as of 13 December 2025). The 2025 elections also paint a highly bleak picture for the Republicans, with the Democratic Party’s attacks on Trump for failing to lower the cost of living contributing to a ‘blue wave’ across multiple states. 

Given these headwinds, the Trump administration needs to start winning back key voters from the 2024 coalition to ensure a Republican victory in the midterms, and the Miami-Dade Latino community is one such group. They were crucial to Florida’s shift from a swing state to a solid red state over the past five years. However, signs are emerging that they may be shifting away from the Republican Party. Latinos across the nation have soured on Trump due to the cost of living and immigration crackdowns. 

Many residents in Dade County (Florida) are refugees who escaped Communist rule in Latin America, including Cubans, Nicaraguans, and recently Venezuelans. The most fanatic of Trump supporters within this community are known as MAGA-zolanos. Their support for Trump is fueled by the belief that he’s the only one willing to topple Communist regimes in Latin America. There is a chance that a failure to topple Maduro could have a similar effect on Republicans that the Bay of Pigs had on the Democrats, wherein John F. Kennedy’s refusal to provide air support for the operation led to its failure, causing Cuban Americans to split away from the Democratic party for its seemingly soft stance on Communism. 

“If President @realDonaldTrump liberates Venezuela, Republicans will win Miami-Dade and FL for another decade.” - Juan C. Porras, Republican  Florida State Representative, said on X

All of this suggests that using the military buildup to threaten Maduro’s position of power and to force him to establish a democracy, could be an attempt by the Trump administration to rally MAGA-zolanos behind the Republican party and get them to vote red in 2026, even if they disapprove of his handling of the economy and immigration. 

Theory 2: Rectifying the 'Failures' of Trump’s First Term

If there has been a common thread between the first and second Trump terms, it is the relitigation of issues the President feels he politically ‘lost’ during his first administration. Whether it is reopening the criminal investigation on Russian interference in the 2016 election by targeting James Comey, reigniting the trade war with other nations by increasing tariffs, or pursuing new trade deals to replace his first-term agreements. Trump’s desire to rewrite the failures of his first term has dominated his second term, and Venezuela is no exception. 

In 2019, the United States imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign against Maduro’s regime, which included sanctions on government officials and oil shipments. The U.S. additionally recognised Juan Guido as interim president and alleged that Maduro’s victory in the 2018 Venezuelan elections was fraudulent. However, the diplomatic and economic campaign failed; Maduro remained in power with support from Russia and China, and the opposition was unable to take charge.

Upon Trump’s return to power in 2025, his administration escalated the campaign of “maximum pressure”. In August, the Department of Justice doubled the bounty on Maduro from $25M to $50M. On 6 October, the Trump administration ordered “special envoy Richard Grenell to stop all outreach” with Venezuela to reach a diplomatic resolution. On 15 October, Trump confirmed that he authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert action and possibly plan airstrikes in Venezuela. 

This suggests that the U.S. naval deployment is merely another way Trump plans to execute his “maximum pressure” campaign. Having learnt that economic sanctions and diplomatic plays were insufficient to end the Maduro regime, the Trump administration may believe that using the threat of military force might finally tip the scales to incentivise the fall of the Maduro regime and resolve the “failure” of his first term. 

Conclusion

The coming months will be crucial for events in the Caribbean. Even with the military buildup, the U.S. government has given mixed signals about Venezuela’s role in it. It is becoming clear that forcing Maduro out is the goal, but the motivations for it and whether an invasion will occur remain unclear. Trump campaigned as a leader who would take the U.S. out of ‘forever wars’ and adhere to isolationism. However, as this gunboat diplomacy campaign against Venezuela unfolds, for the people of Latin America, it serves as a reminder of the worst days of the U.S intervention during the late 19th century. For the American people, it gives them flashbacks to the buildup to the Iraq war, with inconsistent rhetoric and unclear justifications for military action. 

Written by Sam Shetty

Edited by Charles Choi