Takaichi and Taiwan: How the Japanese Prime Minister is Reshaping Japan's Foreign Policy

Source: Wikimedia Commons

A historic first?

Sanae Takaichi’s recent victory in the 2025 Japanese presidential elections has sent ripples across both Japan and Asia. As the first female Prime Minister of a country which chronically underperforms in gender equality, her political success challenges centuries of male domination within Japanese bureaucracy. In Asia, however, Takaichi’s recent conduct has drawn the ire of neighbours like China, with relations between the two nations reaching yet another low point.

A historic break from a patriarchal polity, many see Takaichi as both a nationalist and hardline conservative – a Japanese ‘Iron Lady’ driving Japan further rightward. Entering office with the promise to significantly increase Japan’s military spending, it hardly comes as a surprise that the new PM’s accession has reignited regional tensions once more.

Taiwan: from ambiguity to confrontation

The most notable shift has come over Taiwan. Previous Japanese governments kept diplomatic ties with Taipei under an air of ambiguity, aware of China’s sensitivity to the topic. Takaichi has thrown that caution aside.

In an unprecedented turn, she has made comments conveying an overt willingness to deploy Japan’s Self-Defence Forces to defend Taiwan in the case of an attack from China, straying from decades of more ‘implicit’ support. Beijing, already wary of the strong US-Japan security network, has reacted with fury: Chinese boycotts of Japanese goods and diplomatic castigations indicate that relations between the two nations have begun to grow immeasurably cold.

Takaichi’s abrupt change from the status quo is reasonable, though misguided. Yes, growing Chinese assertiveness within the region does disrupt the regional balance of power and poses a genuine security risk to Japan. Despite this, pulling Taiwan directly into the limelight is a diplomatic manoeuvre that narrows Tokyo’s room to negotiate while directly feeding into international instability. Former President Biden’s similar pledge to “defend” Taiwan in 2022 exemplifies this, forsaking decades of flexible policy on the self-ruling island to stoke the flames for a more aggressive China.

Takaichi and Trump: An embrace of thorns

The Japanese PM’s recent positioning on Taiwan and foreign policy reflects a wider desire to align Japan even more with America. Her support for both national defence and tighter Japanese integration with US forces is a clear signal to Washington that Japanese long-term security interests, at least under her rule, will depend upon their longest supporter.

While strengthening US-Japan ties may seem like a convincing idea, it actually further entrenches what is already a highly asymmetric security alliance. As the Trump administration further obfuscates its volatile foreign policy and places its strongest allies at risk, Japan’s dependence on the US may become more of a vulnerability than a strength.

Under Biden, certainty and commitment underpinned most of US-Japan relations. Under Trump, however, Japan’s intricate relationship with the US is subject to the president’s mercurial temper. His strategic decisions are driven by an impulse that can make Japan appear as a vital ally one day, and an expendable asset the other.

Ill-timed diplomacy in a fragile détente

Another problematic aspect of Takaichi’s posturing is her timing. She appears out of sync with Washington, as her harder line on foreign policy comes just as the Trump administration has finished negotiating a tenuous trade deal with China. The restart of bilateral communications, stabilisation of trade ties, and wider ‘détente’ between the two superpowers risk being undermined by the Japanese PM’s recent remarks.

The calendar makes this even more sensitive. The recent 80^th anniversary of the end of China’s war against Japanese imperialism during World War II has permeated Chinese media and public opinion. Against this backdrop, a Japanese leader associated with militarist revisionism acts as the perfect rallying point for anti-Japanese sentiment within China.

Domestically, Takaichi’s grander positioning and policies have been met with both support and backlash. Her approval rating sits at almost 70%, showcasing that the Japanese PM still retains a strong public backing from a relatively fresh election. Despite this, recent initiatives to raise income tax in a bid to cover growing defence spending, along with strong anti-militarisation sentiment within Japan, may lead to wider opposition concerning her security agenda in the long run.

A poor bet for Japan and Asia

Supporters of Takaichi argue that she is merely responding to an uncomfortable reality: A more assertive China, a more vulnerable Taiwan, and the limits of strategic ambiguity. There is truth in that. The regional balance of power is shifting, and Japan cannot rely indefinitely on a muted and restrained form of diplomacy.

But strategy is about pacing and sensitivity as much as pure resolve. By pushing bold, sudden moves at a moment of US-China de-escalation and heightened historical tension, Takaichi has chosen the most inflammatory way to pursue her strategic goals. She risks dragging her government into a foreign policy it cannot sustain and plunging the region into further hostility.

Japan’s first female prime minister has shown the willingness and the ability to pursue ambitious directives to make her mark in Japanese politics. Even so, the political ramifications of her actions have already begun to show for the nation of 123 million. It is up to her whether she chooses to back down or double down on this.

Written by Albert Yu

Edited by Alexander Xia